Saturday, April 6, 2013

6/4/2013: Part-time & Casual Employment Supports in Ireland

Let's do some more numbers crunching on Irish Live Register for Q1 2013.

In Q1 2012 official Live Register declined 9,902 on Q1 2012 (-2.26%) and down 14,936 on Q1 2011 (-3.37%). Sounds like some achievement. 

Alas, of the above numbers:
  • Of the 9,902 decline on Q1 2012, the decline was just 7,154 when we take into the account state training programmes (-1.38%) and there was a rise of 1,181 (+1.34%) in the numbers who claim Live Register supports while being in casual and part-time employment (more on this below). Thus, the numbers of those fully dependent on Live Register have fallen only 8,335 (-1.94%) on Q1 2012.
  • Of 14,936 decline on Q1 2011 (-3.37%), there was actually an increase in those claiming supports of 3,217 (+0.63%) when we take into the account state training programmes, and there was a rise of 4,352 (+5.13%) in the numbers who claim Live Register supports while being in casual and part-time employment (more on this below). Thus, the numbers of those fully dependent on Live Register have fallen only 1,135 (-0.27%) on Q1 2012.

Now, some would remark that it is better when people are part-time or casually employed, then when they are fully dependent on Live Register supports. I shall, of course, agree with such a statement. However, let's look at what has been happening with casual and part-time employment numbers over time.

  • In 2002-2007 monthly volatility(measured by standard deviation) in the numbers on Live Register who were in casual and part-time employment stood at 1,031. This has risen to 3,979 for the period of 2010-present. In other words, overall casual and part-time employment might have declined significantly in terms of stability of income it offers and, thus reliance on Live Register. This can be due to different quality of skills and occupations for people singing onto Live Register with casual and part-time employment, or it might be due to changes in Live Register supports' eligibility, or both.
  • Of all categories of Live Register signees, volatility of numbers on Live Register has risen only  for part-time and casual workers over 2010-present compared to 2002-2007.2
  • For the Live Register inclusive of the state training programmes participants, volatility has actually fallen over the above periods, driven by declines in volatility for the numbers of signees who are fully reliant on Live Register supports.


To see the deterioration in the quality of casual and part-time employment linked to Live Register participation, consider the chart below:


The chart clearly shows dramatic increase in seasonality of the numbers of those on Live Register in casual and part-time employment for the end of Q2-beginning of Q3 periods since January 2010 as compared to previous years (2002-2007). You can see that the same effect does not appear in the numbers of signees fully dependent on Live Register supports:


6/4/2013: 80 years to deflate unemployment crisis in Ireland?


Continuing with the Live Register data theme: in the first post I covered broader long-term trends in the LR, with the second post looking at some sub-trends relating to nationality of Live Register signees. Here: a quick note on the size of the problem overall.

Total number of persons (officially) on the Live Register declined 2.07% y/y in March, following a steeper decline of 2.40% in February. Compared to March 2011, current reading is down 3.65%.

Thus, March 2013 reading was 165.8% ahead of the 2004-2007 average, 36.1% ahead of 2008-2009 average and is 3.38% below 2010-present average. Taking Q1 2013 average, the Live Register (again, this is official count, excluding those on State training programmes) was up 1.76% on Q4 2012, down 2.26% on Q1 2012 and down 3.37% on Q1 2011.

For the adjusted Live Register (accounting for state training programmes participation), Q1 2013 q/q rate of increase in the Live Register was 1.53% and y/y rate of decrease was -1.38%.

Let me remind you the size of the problem overall:


At the above annual rates of decline (based on Q1 2013 data), it will take 
  • 12.5 years from now to reach 2008-2009 average Live Register levels (which would be consistent with unemployment supports at the levels well above those observed in the 1980s and 1990s) and 
  • 40.5 years to reach 2004-2007 average or 37 years to reach 2000-2007 average.


If you want a really scary number, using y/y change in Q1 2013 in Adjusted Live Register numbers, it will take us 81 years from today to reduce Adjusted Live Register counts to 2000-2007 average level. As a robustness check, the number will be 79 years were we to use Q4 2012 annual rate of decline.

Clearly, the 'turnaround' being signaled by the Live Register is simply not enough to deal with the current problem of unemployment and equally clearly, at current rates of economic 'growth' we either need to raise the speed of economic activity expansion by a factor of 10 or carry out some drastic measures on reforming our unemployment supports in order to see significant reductions in Live Register any time soon.

6/4/2013: Irish Live Register by Nationality: Some Trends


Yesterday, I blogged about Live Register data on overall levels of unemployment supports in Ireland. Today - few charts summing up Live Register trends by nationality.

Total number of persons (officially) on the Live Register declined 2.07% y/y in March, following a steeper decline of 2.40% in February. Compared to March 2011, current reading is down 3.65%.

Meanwhile, the number of Irish Nationals on Live Register fell 1.89% y/y in March, following a decline of 2.39% in February. Current reading stands 3.68% below March 2011 and is down 10.68% on the crisis-period peak. Q1 2013 posted an increase of 1.43% on Q4 2012 and is down 2.21% on Q1 2012 and down 3.45% on Q1 2011.

The number of Non-Irish Nationals on Live Register declined at stronger 2.86% y/y in March than for Irish Nationals. larger decline of 2.45% was recorded for Non-Nationals in February 2013 as well. However, compared to March 2011, current reading is down 3.50% against the comparable period decline of 3.68% for the nationals. Q1 2013 reading for non-Nationals was 3.31% ahead of Q4 2012 - a sharper increase than for Nationals. Q1 2013 reading was down 2.50% for non-Nationals compared to Q1 2012, which represents a sharper decline than for Nationals. Compared to Q1 2011, however, Q1 2013 reading is down 3.03% for non-Nationals against 3.45% for Nationals.

In relative terms, Irish Nationals accounted for 82.16% of the Live Register in March 2013 against 82.01% in march 2012, while for non-Nationals the same ratios were 17.84% in Q1 2013 against 17.99% in Q1 2012. Chart below illustrates:


With small scale changes, there is no to-date reversal in the flat trend in relative shares of two groups in total Live Register numbers that was established around mid-2009 and that corresponds to higher share of Live Register captured by non-Nationals and lower share captured by Nationals. You can clearly see the overall flat trend.

In dynamic terms, chart below illustrates time trends in Live Register presence of three core groups: EU15 (ex-Ireland), EU12 (Accession States) and non-EU migrants.


Share of the EU15 (ex-Ireland) migrants of the total Live Register count fell to 4.8% in March 2013 from 4.87% in March 2012. Over the same time, share of EU12 (Accession States) migrants rose from 9.91% to 9.94%, while share of non-EU migrants declined from 3.21% to 3.10%.

Again, quite interesting dynamics in the above chart. For EU12 Accession States, strong seasonality (and these are already seasonally adjusted stats) shows rises and falls in temporary employment in agriculture and retail sectors, but overall trend since mid-2010 is flat. In contrast, EU15 ex-Ireland trend is that of a decline in Live Register presence. Live Register numbers for non-EU nationals is basically flat since late 2007 and shows no elevation due to crisis. In other words, EU12 nationals number on the Live Register were a strongest driver of Live Register participation increases amongst non-nationals during the crisis and now are changing roughly in line with Live Register changes overall. EU15 ex-Ireland numbers have declined relative to overall Live Register, and non-EU nationals numbers have fallen over the period 2006-2008 and then remained steady in line with overall Live Register trend.

Friday, April 5, 2013

5/4/2013: Live Register March 2013


In light of the recent statement by the IMF about Ireland's broader measure of unemployment, let's ask two other simple questions:

  1. How many people in Ireland receive unemployment supports? 
  2. What percentage of the workforce in Ireland receives unemployment supports?
Answer in two charts based on latest CSO data:

Q1:

A1: In March 2013, there were 425,088 individuals on Live Register and in February 2013 (the latest for which this data is available) 83,421 individuals engaged in state-sponsored training programmes that receive Live Register supports, but are not counted officially as being on Live Register. Thus total number of those in receipt of unemployment supports in Ireland is 508,509 individuals.

This means that while Live Register official numbers have declined 2.065% y/y in March, total number of Live Register supports recipients has declined only 1.355% on March 2012.

To be exactly precise on this, take February 2013 figures alone: in February 2013, total number of those in receipt of Live Register supports was 512,297 which was a decrease in y/y terms of 1.45%, against the official Live Register decrease reported of 2.40%.


Q2:

A2: Using Q4 2012 data for labour force participation (reported via QNHS with a lag compared to Live Register), 27.29% of Irish labour force were in receipt of Live Register assistance in March 2013. 

Again, the data is reported with different lags, so for exact comparative we have to go to December 2012 when 24.23% of Irish labour force were in receipt of Live Register assistance.



Oh, as a bonus, here's a historical chart showing Live Register supports numbers for Ireland since 1967:


Thursday, April 4, 2013

4/4/2013: IMF Analysis of Recent Personal Insolvency Reforms in Europe

In the previous post, I covered in 4 charts (via IMF research paper) the extent of the European debt crisis (link: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2013/04/442013-real-debt-european-crisis-in-4.html?spref=tw ). Here, based on the same source, proposed solutions for dealing with the household debt crisis.


Per IMF:

"A number of European countries have introduced or refined personal insolvency regimes to achieve orderly resolution of the debt overhang over time." Note that here, "personal insolvency law may also cover natural persons who are engaged in business activities (traders or merchants)", which is of course something unaddressed explicitly in Irish reforms despite the fact that current system of insolvency effectively spells an end to the careers of many professionals and businessmen and businesswomen.

"For example, Estonia, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland adopted or amended the personal insolvency law. The Irish Parliament recently adopted an entirely new personal insolvency law to, inter alia; shorten the discharge period from 12 years to 3 years subject to certain conditions. [The bill also allows the court to require repayments for up to five years in the bankruptcy process.]

Here's a very interesting bit: "The German government is also considering a reform of the personal insolvency regime that includes a shortening of the
discharge period. [The proposal envisages to reduce the discharge period from six years to three years provided that at least 25 percent of all debt must be repaid by an individual debtor]." Now, again, interestingly, Irish reforms provide for no set bounds for repayment, thus implying that there is no set limit resolution to the post-bankruptcy liability.

"In designing such regimes, these countries have faced a number of challenges. First, unlike corporate insolvency, there is no established international best practice at all in this area, especially with regard to the treatment of residential mortgages in insolvency proceedings. Second, as individuals are involved, the design of the law is inevitably driven by social policy considerations; these include the goal to reinvigorate individual productive potential in the mainstream economy and to reduce the social costs of leaving debtors in a state of perpetual debt distress. [Note: this is obviously not a core objective for the Irish reform, as it provides virtually no protection to the borrower during the voluntary arrangements period prior to bankruptcy.] Third, the law needs to keep an appropriate balance between maintaining credit discipline and affording financially responsible debtors a fresh start. Finally, the design of the law needs to take into account institutional infrastructure that is critical to the predictable and transparent implementation of the law, including the availability and quality of judges and trustees, administrative capacity, accounting, and valuation systems. [Note: in the Irish reforms case, none of these objectives are met and in fact some are directly violated by the reforms.]"

"A number of basic design features for an economically efficient personal insolvency law have emerged from the early cross-country experience:

  • Allocate risks among parties in a fair and equitable manner; [Not delivered in the Irish case at all]
  • Provide a fresh start through discharge of financially responsible individuals from the liabilities at the end of insolvency proceedings (typically after 3-5 years); [Provided in the Irish reforms]
  • Establish appropriate filing criteria to make insolvency procedures accessible to individual debtors while minimizing abuse; [Irish reforms maximise potential for abuse in pre-insolvency processes of so-called voluntary arrangements by ensuring the banks have asymmetric veto power over arrangements, the banks have sole power of determination of terms and conditions for voluntary arrangements workout period, the banks control and own arbitration process, the banks are not compelled to transparently disclose their solutions and conditions for accessing these solutions, etc].
  • Impose automatic and temporary stay on enforcement actions with adequate safeguards of creditor interests; [This is contradicted by the stated Government intention to speed up forced foreclosures as a part of restructuring of the banks mortgages books]
  • Set repayment terms that accurately reflect the debtor’s capacity to repay to ensure an effective fresh start; and [Note: it is hard to imagine how this can be achieved in the environment of Irish reforms as outlined in the bullet point 3 above]
  • Recognize foreign proceedings and enable cross-border cooperation to avoid bankruptcy tourism. [It is unclear how Irish reforms can reduce incentives to avail of the UK system given the conditions for insolvency in Ireland involve up to 6 years of voluntary work-out plus insolvency process, against 12 months in the UK].

What's happening beyond the above menu?

"The unprecedented challenge of excessive mortgage debt has prompted some European countries to introduce special legislation. [Norway, when facing its own banking crisis and recession in the early 1990s, adopted the Debt Reorganization Act in 1993 to provide debt relief to debtors who are unable to meet their obligations for a period of time. The law provides for voluntary debt settlement and compulsory debt settlement (e.g., reduction of principal of a residential mortgage to 110 percent of the market value of the residence). Now, wait, we were told that such measures (also deployed in Iceland) have never been tried and would lead to a wholesale collapse of the economy...] "

"Faced with wide-scale household mortgage distress in the aftermath of the recent crisis and the bursting of the real estate bubble, Greece, Spain and Portugal have introduced special legislation to address unsustainable residential mortgage debt burdens on households while limiting adverse effects on banks’ balance sheets and minimizing moral hazard."

All of these regimes differ in several respects:


  1. "...While the Spanish regime allows financing institutions to opt into the scheme [Once a financial institution opts in, it must implement for at least two years a Code of Good Practices which provides for measures aimed at achieving a viable mortgage restructuring for debtors covered by the regime., banks’ participation is mandatory for Greece and Portugal]. 
  2. ... Spain and Portugal allow mortgage debtors, subject to certain conditions and as a last resort, to transfer the mortgaged property title to the bank (or a government agency in Portugal) and obtain cancellation of the mortgage debt (up to the assessed value of the residence in Portugal). [Under the Spanish regime, the transfer of the property title and the cancellation of the debt can only happen after it has been proven that neither restructuring of the debt nor application of a partial release is viable.] Greece, on the other hand, allows the court to grant a full discharge of the mortgage debt if the debtor repays up to 85 percent of the commercial value of the principal residence determined by the court over up to 20 years. It is yet too early to assess the effectiveness of the Spain and Portugal regimes, but the Greek authorities are revisiting their framework due to its low rate of successful restructuring to date."

"A number of countries have adopted measures to facilitate out of court settlement for distressed mortgages. For example, Iceland, Ireland, and Latvia adopted voluntary guidelines or codes of conduct that provide guidance on mortgage restructurings for borrowers in financial distress. In 2012, Portugal introduced voluntary out of court guidelines for banks to restructure household debt including residential mortgages more generally with the assistance of debt mediation facilities. Estonia adopted a law effective in April 2011 aimed at supporting the out of court restructuring of debt obligation, including mortgages, of natural persons facing financial difficulties — although the procedure relies heavily on court input. To reduce the burden on the court system, the personal insolvency law recently adopted by the Irish Parliament introduces three non-judicial debt settlement procedures for household debt including a personal insolvency arrangement for settlement of secured debt up to €3 million and unsecured debt (no limit) over six to seven years. The effectiveness of these approaches in tackling mortgage distress remains to be seen."

4/4/2013: Real Debt: European Crisis in 4 charts

Some interesting charts from Liu, Yan and Rosenberg, Christoph B., World Economic Outlook, April 2013. IMF Working Paper No. 13/44. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2229653

Chart 1 below details the extent of the debt overhang in a number of countries:


Charts 2 and 3 outline the problem relative to financial assets available to offset the debt (theoretical offset, obviously):


Non-performing loans problem...


Quite telling, with no commentary needed, imo.

4/4/2013: Irish Planning Permissions 2012 data


Per data released on March 22 by CSO, Irish Planning Permissions for Construction have continued to collapse in 2012. Full year data shows that:

  • In 2012 total number of all types of planning permissions issued in the state stood at 14,407 - an all-time record low (with records starting in 1992), down 9.91% on 2011. 2010-2011 rate of contraction was 15.11% and 2009-2010 rate of decline was 27.64%, so naturally for such steep drops in previous years, the rate of annual declines is moderating. 
  • From the pre-crisis peak, number of planning permissions is now down 76.90%
  • Planning permissions for dwellings fell to 3,643 in 2012, down 23.58%, having fallen 24.89% in 2010-2011 and 38.85% in 2009-2010. Compared to peak, the permissions are down 86.76% to a new historical low.
  • Planning permissions for other new construction rose in 2012 to 3,407 from 2,964 in 2011, a rate of increase of 14.95% y/y that follows declines of 7.52% in 2010-2011 and 29.01% in 2009-2010. Relative to peak, 2012 level of permissions for other new construction are down 82.4% against absolute minimum reached in 2011 when these were down 84.72% relative to peak.


In square footage terms, planning permissions issued
  • Fell 21.56% y/y for all types of new construction (these are now down 86.67% on peak, hitting a new historical low);
  • Fell 39.48% y/y for dwellings (these are now down 90.89% on peak, hitting a new historical low);
  • Fell 7.44% y/y for other types of new construction (these are now down 86.78% on peak, hitting new historical low);
  • Rose 0.52% for extensions (these are now down 68.87% on peak, having hit the bottom at -73.41% on the peak in 2011).

At certain point in time (soon, one assumes given the rates of decline on peak already delivered), a broom shed construction somewhere in West Meath will qualify as an uplift in the market....

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

3/4/2013: Irish Manufacturing PMI: March 2013

Manufacturing PMI data from NCB and Markit released yesterday was a bit of a disaster, mitigated only by the fact that Ireland's performance was in line with the abysmal reading for the entire euro area.

Headline seasonally adjusted Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.5 in February (indicative of a reasonably marked expansion, albeit still not statistically significant) to 48.6 in March (statistically not significant contraction). The swing of 2.9 points was the largest since July-August 2012. This was the first sub-50 reading in PMI since February 2012.

12mo MA is now at 51.4 against 6mo average of 51.1. 3mo MA is running at 50.1 and is substantially down on 3mo average through December 2012 (52.0). This compares favourably to 49.8 3mo average through March 2012, but is well below 56.1 average for 3mo period through March 2011 and marginally ahead of 3mo average through March 2010 (49.9).


Index volatility is running well above historical levels at 2008-present stdev at 5.33 against historical stdev of 4.40.

Output sub-index fell from 51.3 in February 2013 to 48.1 in March 2013, marking the lowest reading since January 2012 and the first sub-50 reading since April 2012. 12mo MA and 6mo MA are both at 51.7, with 3mo MA at 50.3 against previous 3mo MA at 53.1.

New orders sub-index also fell below 50 line with February 50.8 weak expansion slipping into contraction territory at 49.1 in March. Once again, this was the weakest reading since January 2012.



New Export Orders came in at 47.6 - a sharp contraction and a massive fall on 50.1 in February, signalling the worst performance since August 2009. 12mo MA is now at 51.9, with 6mo MA at 51.0 and 3mo MA at 49.5 (previous 3mo MA was at 52.5, implying a 3.0 point swing down). Current reading is statistically significant sub-50 reading.

As you know, I compute current and forward-looking composite indices of activity.

Current Composite PMI reading is at 48.3 in March, down from 51.4 in February and marks the lowest reading since January 2010. Forward Composite PMI reading is at 48.4 - the worst performance since December 2011 and down on 50.5 reading in February.


Output prices fell at 48.2 in March, same as in January and down from expansion at 51.2 in February 2013. Meanwhile, input prices inflation moderated, but remained robust at 54.8 in March, down from 57.1 in January and February. Thus, overall profitability fell. In last 24 months, profitability rose in the sector in only one month.

Employment fell sharply to 47.2 in March against expansion of 52.7 in February. March reading was the lowest since October 2011.

Overall, the PMI for manufacturing sector was a disaster!

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

2/4/2013: Talkin of Gettin Things Really Wrong...

When Washington Post gets things badly wrong...

"Ireland doesn’t look likely to cause problems anytime soon. It’s been paying back the 2010 bailout from the E.U. faster than it had too [sic], which has pushed bond rates way down."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/30/cyprus-luxembourg-italy-or-malta-which-country-will-unravel-the-euro-zone/

Sorry, what?! Ahem... no... WHAT?!

2/4/2013: Confused or spun? Property prices in Ireland


So foreign investors are allegedly flocking in thousands to Irish commercial real estate markets, snapping anything they can get their hands on... right
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/number-of-empty-office-buildings-soars-by-67pc-29167687.html

Meanwhile, of course, residential property is on a 'recovery path' (aka flat-line dead) per latest CSO figures for the Residential Property Price Index.


In February 2013, RPPI for all properties fell from 65.4 in January to 64.4 (a decline of 1.53% - the steepest rate of m/m drop since February 2012 and worse than the year-to-date average m/m decline of 1.07%). The index is now down 2.57% y/y.

Looking at slightly smoother 3mo figures: 3mo cumulative change on previous 3 months was -2.57% which signals acceleration in decline compared to 6mo change on previous 6 mo at -1.23%. Thus, relative to peak, RPPI hit absolute bottom at -50.65% with previous record drop of -50.34% recorded in June 2012.


The Government needs some serious spin to paint house prices dynamics in anything but bleak terms. Per RPPI, House prices are deteriorating, slipping to 67 in February 2013 from 68.1 in January 2013 and setting an all-time record low. House prices are down 1.62% m/m and 2.90% y/y. 3mo cumulated change is -3.04% and 6mo cumulated change is -1.47% so things are getting worse, not better, over time once again.

RPPI overall, however, was supported to the upside by the price changes in sub-index covering Apartments. Apartments prices sub-index rose to 51.5 in February from 48.1 in January (+7.07% m/m) which suggests that a single outlier transaction might have distorted the cumulative figures. Nonetheless, in terms of 3mo MA this only brings sub-index to the levels of May-June 2012.


Lastly, Dublin sub-index showed once again that flat-line can actually be associated with both down and up volatility. In February 2013 Dublin sub-index slipped to 59.3 from 59.5 in January, which means that the index is now up 2.95% y/y. Happy times? Somewhat. But note that 6mo cumulated change through February 2013 was at +3.49% while 3mo cumulated change through February is -1.17%, so dynamically things are worrisome, rather than encouraging.


Funny thing this recovery, folks... Government & Green Jerseys say one thing, their own data says another... confused.com? or maybe spin.ie?

2/4/2013: US Mint Gold Coins vs Gold Prices


In the previous post I covered some Q1 2013 trends in US Mint gold coins sales and mentioned correlations between spot price of gold and volume of coinage gold sold. Here's a bit more beef on the latter.



As charts above clearly show, there is not much of a statistically significant relationship between price of gold and volumes of coinage gold demanded, neither in levels terms, nor growth terms. Which, of course, strongly suggests that the demand for coinage gold is based on longer-term considerations than those underpinned by simple price reactions.

Looking at H1 data over the same time horizon confirms the main observation:


There is zero relationship in smoother data (H1 cumulated) between demand for coinage and price of gold, while there is a relatively weak positive correlation between demand for gold content per coin purchased and the price of gold.

Key point here is that there is absolutely no hard evidence that gold coins demand is bubble-prone or bubble-driven.

2/4/2013: US Mint gold sales: Q1 2013

Q1 2013 data for gold coins sales by US Mint is out and is worth a look. Here are some top trends:


Per chart above, number of US Mint coins sold in March 2013 declined to 103,000 compared to 155,000 in February. Controlling somewhat for seasonal changes, y/y number of coins sold rose 3.52% from 99,500 in sales in March 2012. Looking at Q1 totals, Q1 2013 sales added to 533,500 coins, up 39.3% on Q1 2012, 10.57% on Q1 2011 and 96.86% on Q1 2010. Healthy uplifts against generally flat-trend prices. And, crucially, coins sales do not appear to be tracking 'risk-on' and 'risk-off' signals from equity markets. As I always maintained, coins sales have much more to do with steady risk-averse savers than with speculative buyers.

Chart below details relationship between volumes of gold sold via US Mint coins and price of gold (monthly final). In terms of volumes sold, March 2013 clocked sales of 62,000 oz, down from 80,500 in February 2013, and down 0.8% on March 2012 (62,500 oz). In quarterly totals, Q1 2013 came in at 292,500 oz and this was up 38.95% on Q1 2012, down 2.34% on Q1 2011 and up 7.93% on Q1 2010. In other words, much steadier demand growth in volumes of sales was also broken in 2013.

Meanwhile, price of gold rose 1.21% m/m in March and slipped 3.29% y/y. (More on correlations below).


The following chart details trend in average gold content per coin sold (oz/coin): in March 2013, average gold content stood at 0.602 oz/coin, up on 0.519 oz/coin in February 2013 and not far off from the 0.628 oz/coin in March 2012. However, overall trend remains relatively flat at around 0.65 oz/coin since mid-2006. Longer term trend is gently upward, indicating that over time, investors and savers started to allocated slightly more of their investable savings into coinage gold.


 Chart below shows correlation between volumes of coinage gold sold and gold price:


Two things worth noting in the above:

  1. Since approximately Q2 2012 we are experiencing steady upward momentum in 12 months rolling correlations, and these are rising toward +0.5. This trend was confirmed in March 2013 and it is consistent with 24mo rolling correlations, but is still far off on 36mo or 50mo rolling basis.
  2. Linear long-term trend is also upward and is now in the positive correlation territory. This can potentially suggest that gradual financialisation of the gold markets in general is having a long term impact on gold's shorter-range hedging properties, since positive correlation is consistent with higher propensity of 'buy-on-dips' and 'book profit' behaviour. However, as 60mo chart shows below, we are still in solid hedging territory for now when it comes to longer investment horizons. Furthermore, correlations trends are negligible in size. So something to watch in the future and to blog on next... stay tuned.
Chart with 60mo rolling correlations