Showing posts with label MNCs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MNCs. Show all posts

Sunday, December 15, 2019

15/12/19: Under the Hood of Irish National Accounts: 3Q 2019 Data


CSO have released the latest (3Q 2019) data for the National Accounts. The headlines are covered in the release here: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/na/quarterlynationalaccountsquarter32019/ and are worth checking. There was a massive q/q increase in GNP (+8.9%) and a strong rise in GDP (+1.7%).

Official value added q/q growth figures were quite impressive too:

  • Financial & Insurance Activities value added was +5.7 percent in volume, all of which, judging by the state of the Irish banks came probably from the IFSC and insurance premiums hikes
  • Professional, Administrative & Support Services +5.1 percent (this sector is now heavily dominated by the multinationals)
  • Public Administration, Education and Health sector lagged with a +1.5 percent 
  • Arts & Entertainment +1.8 percent
  • Construction grew by much more modest +1.3 percent 
  • Industry (ex-Construction) fared worse at +1.1 percent 
  • Information & Communication increased by 0.8 percent over the same period
  • Meanwhile, more domestic-focused Agriculture recorded a decline of 3.2 percent 
  • Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants posted a decline of 1.0 percent.
On the expenditure side of accounts:
  • Personal Consumption Expenditure increased by 0.9 percent q/q
  • Government expenditure increased 1.2 percent.
Not exactly the gap we want to see, especially during the expansionary cycle, but public consumption has been running below private consumption in level terms ever since the onset of the recovery.

With this in mind, here is what is not discussed in-depth in the CSO release. CSO reports a measure of economic activity that attempts to strip out some (but not all) of the more egregious effects of the tax optimising multinational enterprises' on our national accounts. The official name for it is 'Modified Domestic Demand', "an indicator of domestic demand that excludes the impact of trade in aircraft by aircraft leasing companies and trade in R&D service imports of intellectual property". Alas, the figures do include intangibles inflows, especially IP on-shoring, income from domiciled intangible assets, and transfer pricing activities. Appreciating CSO's difficulties, it is virtually impossible to make a judgement as to what of these three components is real (in so far as it may be actually physically material to Irish enterprises and MNCs trading from here) and what relates to pure tax optimisation.

With liberty not permitted to CSO, let's take the two categories out of the aggregate modified demand figures.


So, this good news first: Modified Total Domestic Demand is growing and this growth (y/y) is improving since hitting the recovery period low in 3Q 2018. 

Bad news: growth in modified domestic demand remains extremely volatile - a feature of the Irish economy since mid-2014 when the first big splashes of the Leprechaun Economics started manifesting themselves (also see last chart below).

Not great news, again, is that domestic growth is not associated with increases in investment (first chart above, blue line). 

More good news: in levels terms, adjusting for inflation, Ireland's Modified Domestic Demand has been running well-above pre-crisis period peak average levels for quite some time (chart below). Even better news, it appears that much of the recent support for growth in demand has been genuinely domestic.


Next chart shows y/y growth rates in the headline Modified Total Domestic Demand as reported by the CSO (blue line) and the same, less transfer pricing, stocks flows and IP flows (grey line). 


Starting with mid-2014, there is a massive variation in growth rates between the domestic economy growth rates as reported by the CSO and the same, adjusting for MNCs-dominated IP and transfer pricing flows, as well as one-off effects of changes in stocks (inventories). There is also tremendous volatility in the MNCs-led activities overall. Historically, standard deviation in the y/y growth rates in official modified domestic demand is 5.68, and for the period from 3Q 2014 this is running at 5.09. For modified demand ex-transfer pricing, IP and stocks flows, the same numbers are 6.12 and 1.62. 

Overall, growth data for Ireland has been quite misleading in terms of capturing the actual tangible activities on the ground in prior years. But since mid-2014, we have entered an entirely new dimension of accounting shenanigans by the multinationals. Much of this is driven by two factors:
  1. Changes in tax optimisation strategies driven by the international reforms to taxation regimes and the resulting push by the Irish authorities to alter the more egregious loopholes of the past by replacing them with new (IP-related and intangible capital-favouring) regime; and
  2. Changes in the ays in which MNCs prioritise specific investment inflows into Ireland, namely the drive by the MNCs to artificially or superficially increase tangible footprint in the Irish economy (investment in buildings, facilities and on-shored employment) to provide cover for more tax-driven FDI.
Time will tell if these changes will lead to more or less actual growth in the real economy, but it is notable that the likes of the IMF have recently focused their efforts at detecting tax optimising activities at national levels away from income flows (OECD approach to tax reforms) to FDI stocks and firm-level capital activities. By these (IMF's) metrics, Ireland has now been formally identified as a corporate tax haven. How soon before the OECD notices?..

Friday, January 29, 2016

28/1/16: Irish M&As: Not Too Irish & Mostly Inversions


Experian latest figures for *Irish* M&A activities for 2015 show some astronomical number: Per release: “The number of deals on the Irish mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market increased by 10 per cent last year, its strongest performance since 2008…” Which is not what is impressive. Although the overall number of actual transactions hit 458 in 2015, up from 416 the previous year, it is the value of transactions that is beyond any belief.

Again, per Experian: “The total value of transactions reached €312 billion – up from €154 billion in 2014 and by some way the most valuable year for corporate deal making in the country’s history. Activity continues to be driven by the pharmaceuticals and biotech sector.” This number is a third higher than the value of exports of good and services from Ireland over the period of 12 months through 3Q 2015 and it is almost 60 percent higher than Irish GDP. In other words, using normal valuations multiples, you should be able to buy anywhere between 1/4 and 2/5 of entire Ireland on this money. In one go, and forever… And that’s one year worth.

Per Experian: “Irish deals accounted for around 3.6% of the total volume of European transactions in 2015, but 20.5% of their total value. In 2014, the Republic of Ireland again featured in 3.6% of European deals but contributed just 12.7% to their overall value.”

So conservatively, let’s say 1/3 of Ireland bought last year and, say 1/5 in 2014… that’s half the country economy in two years.

But how on Earth can a little country like Ireland attract such a level of financial activity? Why, remember that magic word… ‘inversions’ - yes, that same word that out Government denies applies to Ireland.

Well, Experian provides a small insight (they wouldn’t tell us the full story, but they can’t quite escape from telling us some. Enjoy the following: per Experian, Top 5 “Irish” deals announced in 2015 includedd:

  • Pfizer-Allergan at EUR143.564 billion
  • Teva Pharma - Generic drug business of Allergan at EUR35.454 billion
  • Shire - Baxalta at EUR29.533 billion
  • Willis Group Holdings - Towers Watson deal at EUR15.566 billion, and
  • CRH - Holcim & Lafarge deal at EUR7.671 billion


So, yep: tax inversion at the top, related to tax inversion at No.2, tax inversion at No.3… and none (repeat - none, including CRH deal) related in any way to Ireland, except for tax domicile of the companies involved.

Repeat with me… “There are no tax inversions into Ireland”… now, with zombie like intonation, please… “There are no…”



Sunday, December 13, 2015

13/12/15: Irish National Accounts 3Q: Post 6: Exports and MNCs


In the previous 6 posts, I covered:

  1. Irish National Accounts 3Q: Sectoral Growth results;
  2. Irish year-on-year growth rates in GDP and GNP;
  3. Quarterly growth rates in Irish GDP and GNP
  4. Irish Domestic Demand (Household Consumption, Government Spending and Public and Private Investment)
  5. Irish external trade; and
  6. Evolution of per-capita metrics and the dynamics of the crisis.

So let’s get down to the last post on the matter of Irish National Accounts for 3Q 2015: the subject of Irish economy’s dependency on MNCs… err… exports that is.

Real Exports as a share of Irish real GDP stood at 120.1% in 3Q 2015, the second highest proportion on record, down from 123.0% in 2Q 2015 which was record-breaking level. Similarly, Nominal Exports as a share of nominal GDP fell from 127.2% in 2Q 2015 (highest on record) to 122.7% (second highest).


This is a remarkable set of numbers, driven predominantly by the activities of MNCs in Irish economy, and a number that is a signifier of all that is wrong with our National Accounts. Unlike countries that serve as a basis for production, Ireland serves as a basis for both some production of goods and services, but also as a platform for large scale tax optimisation. Vast majority of our exports are accounted for by MNCs trading from here, with large share of activity not taking place here, but being booked into Ireland from abroad. This distorts actual levels and value of production, but it also distorts the metrics of this economy’s openness to trade.

As the result on much of the MNCs activities, profits derived in Ireland by MNCs can go four ways:

  1. They can be booked into tax havens (in which case they register as outflows from Ireland or Irish imports);
  2. They can be booked in Ireland as profits and retained here (in which case they accrue to our National Accounts);
  3. They can be registered here and then repatriated abroad (in which case they register as outflows of factor income); and
  4. They can be booked into here and then expatriated, but remain on our books, as long as the MNCs is domiciled here (e.g. company created as an Irish entity via inversion).

We have zero ability to tell how much exactly do MNCs derive in profit from activities here and tax optimisation through here. But we do have a number that partially captures (3) above. This is provided by Net Factor Income Outflows to the Rest of the World and here is the chart showing how it evolved over time relative to Exports:


Do note that over 2011 - present period, average net outflow of factor payments abroad has fallen as a share of Exports from 17.5% in the period of 1Q 2002 - 4Q 2010 to 15.1%, the lowest period average on record. In other words, during the last 4 and 3/4 years MNCs operating from Ireland have been expatriating fewer profits abroad than in other periods in history. Question is: what happens to these retained profits over time? Obviously, these MNCs have absolutely no interest in re-investing these profits in Ireland (there is neither the scale for such reinvestment, nor the need). This suggests that either these profits are being parked until such a time as when they can be expatriated for the purpose of funding MNCs investments around the world, or the MNCs overall switched to declaring lower profits as a share of their exports.

Truth is - we do not know what is going on, though we do know that something is afoot.

Overall, however, Irish economic miracle’s dependence on MNCs-driven exports growth is growing, whilst transparency of MNCs operations here (at least as far as the National Accounts go) is declining. Happy FDI days are upon us… as long as the U.S., OECD, EU, and the rest of the host of states and organisations hell-bent on ending the free for all tax optimisation by corporates aren’t looking…

Saturday, December 12, 2015

12/12/15: Irish National Accounts 3Q: Post 6: Measuring Recovery


In previous posts, I have covered:

  1. Irish National Accounts 3Q: Sectoral Growth results 
  2. Year-on-year growth rates in GDP and GNP in 3Q 2015 
  3. Quarterly growth rates in GDP and GNP 
  4. Domestic Demand and
  5. External trade side of the National Accounts 

Now, as usual, let’s take a look at the evolution of 3 per-capita metrics and trace out the dynamics of the crisis.

In 3Q 2015, Personal Expenditure per capita for the last four quarters totalled EUR 19,343, which represents an increase of 2.78% on four quarters total through 3Q 2014. Relative to peak 4 quarters total (attained in 4Q 2007), current levels of Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services on a per capita is 7.14% below the peak levels. In other words, 7 and 3/4 of the years down, Personal Expenditure on a per capita basis is yet to recover (in real terms) pre-crisis peak.

Per capita Final Domestic Demand (combining Personal Expenditure, Government Expenditure and Fixed Capital Formation) based on the total for four quarters through 3Q 2015 stood at EUR 34,616, which represents an increase of 7.75% y/y. This level of per capita Demand is 11.19% lower than pre-crisis peak attained in 4Q 2007. As with Personal Expenditure per capita, Final Demand per capita is yet to complete crisis period recovery, 7 and 3/4 of the years down.

On the other hand, GDP per capita stood at EUR 42,870 on a cumulative 4 quarters basis, which is 6.2% above the same period for 2014 and is 0.98% above the pre-crisis peak (4Q 2007). Hence, GDP per capita has now fully recovered from the pre-crisis peak and it ‘only’ took it 7.5 years to do so.

GNP per capita has recovered from the crisis back in 2Q 2015, so at of Q3 2015, 4-quarters aggregate GNP per capita stood at EUR 36,508 which is 5.85% ahead of the same period through Q3 2014 and is 2.39% above pre-crisis peak. In other words, it took 7 and 1/4 years for GNP per capita to regain its pre-crisis peak.



It is also worth looking at the potential levels of output per capita ex-crisis.

To do so, let’s take average growth rates for 4 quarters moving aggregate GDP. GNP and Domestic Demand, for the period 1Q 2002 through 4Q 2007. Note 1: this period represents slower rates of growth than years prior to 1Q 2002. Note 2: I further removed all growth rates observations within the period that were above 5 percentage points for GDP and GNP and above 4% for Final Demand, thus significantly reducing impact of a number of very high growth observations on resulting trend.

Here is the chart, also showing by how much (% terms) would GDP, GNP and Domestic Demand per capita have been were pre-crisis trends (moderated by my estimation) to persist from 4Q 2007:


I’ll let everyone draw their own conclusions as to the recovery attained.

12/12/15: Irish National Accounts 3Q: Post 5: External Trade


In the first post of the series, I covered Irish National Accounts 3Q: Sectoral Growth results. The second post covered year-on-year growth rates in GDP and GNP, while the third post covered quarterly growth rates in GDP and GNP. The fourth post covered Domestic Demand.

Now, consider external trade side of the National Accounts.

Irish Exports of Goods & Services stood at EUR62.52 billion in 3Q 2015, a rise of 12.4% y/y, after posting growth of 13.5% y/y in 2Q 2015 and 15.5% growth in 3Q 2014. Over the last four quarters, Irish Exports of Goods & Services grew, on average, at a rate of 13.4%, implying doubling of exports by value roughly every 5.5 years. If you believe this value to be reflective of a volume of real economic activity taking place in a country with roughly 1.983 million people in employment, you have to be on Amsterdam brownies. Over the 12 months through 3Q 2015, Irish economy has managed to export EUR235.67 billion worth of stuff, or a whooping EUR27.828 billion more than over the same period a year before. That’s EUR118,845 per person working at home or at work in Ireland.

Now, moving beyond the total, Exports of Goods stood at EUR34.062 billion in 3Q 2015, up 16.07% y/y - a doubling rate of 4.5 years. Exports of goods were up 16.03% y/y in 2Q 2015 and 16.9% in 3Q 2014, so over the last 12 months, average rate of growth in Exports of Goods was 18.01%. In other words, Irish Exports of Goods (physical stuff apparently manufactured here) are running at a rate of increase consistent with doubling of exports every 4 years.

Exports of Services are still ‘lagging’ behind, standing at EUR28.458 billion in 3Q 2015, up 8.2% y/y in 3Q 2015, having previously risen 10.5% in 2Q 2015. Both rates of growth are below 13.9% heroic rate of expansion achieved in 3Q 2014. Over the last four quarters, average rate of growth in Irish Exports of Services was 8.6%, to EUR107.29 billion.

However, in order to produce all these marvels of exports (and indeed to sustain living and consumption), Ireland does import truck loads of stuff and services. Thus, Imports of Goods and Services overall rose to EUR52.788 billion in 3Q 2015, up 18.9% y/y and beating 16.5% growth in 2Q 2015 and even 18.75% growth in 3Q 2014. Over the last four quarters average rate of growth in Imports of Goods and Services was impressive 17.6%.

Some of this growth was down to increased consumer demand. Imports of Goods alone rose 5.1% y/y in Q3 2015, compared to 8.1% in 2Q 2015 and 16.7% in 3Q 2014 (over the last four quarters, average growth rate was 10.1%). Imports of Services, however, jumped big time: up 27.9% y/y in 3Q 2015, having previously grown 21.8% in 2Q 2015 and 20.2% in 3Q 2014 (average for the last four quarters is 22.6%). Of course, imports of services include imports of IP by the web-based and ICT and IFSC firms, while imports of goods include pharma inputs, transport inputs (e.g. aircraft leased by another strand of MNCs and domestic tax optimisers) and so on.

Both, exports and imports changes are also partially driven by changes in the exchange rates, which are virtually impossible to track, since contracts for shipments within MNCs are neither transparent, more disclosed to us, mere mortals, and can have virtually no connection to real world exchange rates.

All of which means that just as in the case of our GDP and GNP and even Domestic Demand, Irish figures for external trade are pretty much meaningless: we really have no idea how much of all this activity sustains in wages & salaries, business income and employment and even taxes that is anchored to this country.

But, given everyone’s obsession with official accounts, we shall plough on and look at trade balance next.



Ireland’s Trade Balance in Goods hit the absolute historical record high in 3Q 2015 at EUR15.602 billion, up 32.4% y/y and exceeding growth rate in 2Q 2015 (+27.5%) and 3Q 2014 (+17.2%). Meanwhile, Trade Balance in Services posted the largest deficit in history at EUR5.87 billion, up almost ten-fold on same period in 2014, having previously grown by 154% in 2Q 2015.

Thus, overall Trade Balance for Goods and Services fell 13.4% y/y in 3Q 2015 to EUR9.732 billion, having posted second consecutive quarter of y/y growth (it shrunk 0.51% y/y in 2Q 2015).



As chart above shows, overall Trade Balance dynamics have been poor for Ireland despite the record-busting exports and all the headlines about huge contribution of external trade to the economy. On average basis, period average for 1Q 2013-present shows growth rate averaging not-too-shabby 5.1% y/y. However, this corresponds to the lowest average growth rate for any other period on record, including the disaster years of 1Q 2008 - 4Q 2012 (average growth rate of 24.3% y/y).

Friday, December 11, 2015

11/12/15: Irish National Accounts 3Q: Post 4: Domestic Demand


In the previous posts of the series, I covered Irish National Accounts 3Q: Sectoral Growth results;  year-on-year growth rates in GDP and GNP; and quarterly growth rates in GDP and GNP.

Now, let’s look at the Domestic Demand.

Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services rose 3.63% y/y in 3Q 2015 in real terms, posting a stronger growth than in 2Q 2015 (+2.91%) and in 3Q 2014 (+1.11%). Over the last four consecutive quarters, growth in Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services averaged 3.36%. All of this is strong and encouraging, as Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services is one of the few figures still remaining in the National Accounts that are unpolluted by the MNCs activities and as such is a significant reflection of the strength of the real economy.

Despite the rise in 3Q 2015, current level of Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services remains 7.85% below pre-crisis peak levels.

Still, in 3Q 2015, Personal Expenditure on Goods & Services contributed EUR779 million to y/y growth in GDP and GNP, which is up on EUR616 million growth contribution in 2Q 2015 and on EUR236 million growth in 3Q 2014.


Expenditure by Government on Current Goods & Services fell in 3Q 2015 (down -1.38% y/y or -EUR94 million). This compares to growth of 1.82% y/y in 2Q 2015 and 3.23% growth in 3Q 2014. Over the last four quarters, Expenditure by Government on Current Goods & Services growth averaged strong 3.95% - faster than growth in Persona Consumption.

As with Personal Consumption, Government Expenditure is still down on pre-crisis peak levels, in fact, it is down more than Personal Consumption at -13.1%.


Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation continued to post literally unbelievable readings in 3Q 2015, rising 35.8% y/y, compared to 34.2% increase recorded in 2Q 2015 and to 10.1% rise in 3Q 2014. 3Q 2015 y/y growth figure was the highest on record and there is a clear pattern of dramatic increases over 4Q 2014, 2Q 2015 and 3Q 2015, with last four quarters average growth rate at 24.9% implying that Irish economy’s capital stock should be doubling in size every 3 years. This is plain bonkers and is a clear signifier of distortions induced into the Irish economy by the likes of Nama, vulture funds and MNCs.

Based on our official accounts, whilst building and construction (including civil engineering etc) added only EUR44 million to GDP in 3Q 2015, Fixed Capital Formation jumped by EUR3.1 billion over the same period of time.

Still, even with this patently questionable accounting, Irish Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation remains 11.8% below pre-crisis peak levels.



With all three components of Final Domestic Demand still under pre-crisis peak levels performance, Final Domestic Demand ended 3Q 2015 some 7.0% below pre-crisis peak. However, Final Domestic Demand did post strong growth, rising 10.2% in 3Q 2015 compared to 3Q 2014, with rate of growth in 3Q basically consistent with 10.1% expansion recorded in 2Q 2015, and up strongly on 3.1% y/y growth recorded in 3Q 2014. Over the last four quarters, Final Domestic Demand growth rate averaged 8.35%.




However, virtually all of growth in Final Domestic Demand was accounted for by Fixed Capital Formation - the only component of the Domestic Demand that is impacted by the MNCs. In 3Q 2015, growth in Final Domestic Demand stood at EUR3.782 billion, of which EUR3.098 billion came from Fixed Capital Formation side.

One additional point is worth making with respect to the expenditure side of Irish National Accounts in 3Q 2015. In last quarter, EUR497 million (or 37.6% of total GNP growth y/y) came from the expansion in the Value of Physical Changes in Stocks. This is not insignificant. In 3Q 2015, compared to 3Q 2014, Personal Expenditure in Ireland contributed EUR779 million, while Changes in the Value of Stocks contributed EUR497 million. Absent this level of growth in stocks, Irish GNP would have been up only 3.43% y/y instead of 5.5% and taking into the account last four quarters average changes in Stocks, the GNP would have been up just 2.8%. In other words, quite a bit of Irish GDP and GNP growth in 3Q 2015 was down to companies accumulating Physical Stocks of goods and services, sitting unsold.

A key observation, therefore, from the entire National Accounts series is that one cannot talk about Irish economy ‘overheating’ or ‘running at its potential output’ anymore: all three headline growth figures of GDP growth (+6.84% y/y in 3Q 2015), GNP growth (+5.50% y/y) and Domestic Demand growth (+10.23% y/y) are influenced significantly by MNCs and post-crisis financial and property markets re-pricing. In the surreal world of Irish economics, the thermometer that could have told us about economy’s health is simply badly broken.


Stay tuned for analysis of Irish External Trade figures next.

Thursday, December 10, 2015

10/12/15: Irish National Accounts 3Q: Post 3: Quarterly GDP and GNP Growth


In the first post of the series, I covered Irish National Accounts 3Q: Sectoral Growth results (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/12/101215-irish-national-accounts-3q-part.html).

The second post covered year-on-year growth rates in GDP and GNP (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/12/101215-irish-national-accounts-3q-post.html)

Now, consider quarterly growth rates analysis.

While things were bustlingly rosy for GDP and GNP based on year-on-year growth figures, the picture is much more mixed when it comes to quarterly growth rates.

Firstly, GDP at constant factor costs rose 1.43% q/q in 3Q 2015, down from 2.4% growth recorded in 2Q 2015 and on 2.54% growth recorded in 3Q 2014. In so far as this reflects sectoral activity, this slower 3Q 2015 growth is hard to interpret.

Taxes at constant factor costs actually fell 1.49% q/q in 3Q 2015, having risen just 0.37% q/q in 2Q 2015. 2014 3Q contraction was much sharper at 6.65%.

GDP at constant market prices rose 1.37% q/q in 3Q 2015, once again posting slower rates of growth than in 2Q 2015 (+1.89%) and in 3Q 2014 (+2.06%). The current rate of q/q growth in GDP was the slowest in 3 quarters, but remains significant (above 1.33% average for the period of 1Q 2013 - 3Q 2015.

GNP surprised to a downside, falling 0.81% q/q in 3Q 2015, having previously posted growth of 1.35% in 2Q 2015 and having expanded 2.71% in 3Q 2014. In fact, 3Q 2015 is the worst quarter-on-quarter growth result for GNP since 4Q 2013 and the second quarter of negative growth over the last 4 quarters (previous one was in 1Q 2015 at -0.24%).

Over the first three quarters of 2015, GNP growth averaged 0.1%, which compares poorly to 1.97% average for the first three quarters of 2014 and 3.21% average growth posted for the first 3 quarters of 2013, and ditto for 2012.


The key takeaways here are:

  1. Q/Q GDP growth remains robust, but is now the lowest in 3 consecutive quarters;
  2. Q/Q GNP growth has turned negative once again in 3Q 2015, posting the worst reading for any quarter since 4Q 2013.
  3. Meanwhile, net factor income outflows to the rest of the world are booming, hitting (on seasonally adjusted basis) the highest level since 4Q 2011 and the second highest level on record. 

In other words, MNCs extraction of profits from the economy is ramping out, which is helping the Exchequer and pushes up GDP, but also is leading to GNP growth lagging that of GDP.


Stay tuned for more analysis coming up.

10/12/15: Irish National Accounts 3Q: Post 2: Annual GDP and GNP Growth


In the first post of the series, I covered Irish National Accounts 3Q: Sectoral Growth results (http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/12/101215-irish-national-accounts-3q-part.html).

Now, consider data for GDP and GNP aggregates. Starting with seasonally unadjusted data (real variables) to allow for y/y comparatives.

Taxes at Constant Factor Costs:

  • In 3Q 2015, Taxes at Constant Factor Costs rose at 6.95% y/y, having previously posted an increase of 6.04% in 2Q 2015 and a rise of 1.67% y/y in 3Q 2014. Taxes at Constant Factor Costs added EUR403 million to official GDP in 3Q 2015, a rise on the increase of EUR279 million in 2Q 2015 and a massive jump compared to the y/y uplift of EUR95 million in 3Q 2014. This clearly correlates with the data from the Exchequer and most likely is dominated by unexpected (and unexplained) growth in corporation tax receipts. 
  • Over nine months through September 2015, Taxes at Constant Factor Costs rose EUR1.129 billion (+7.05%) compared to the same period of 2014. This rise now accounts for 16.9% of the increase in GNP over the same period. 


GDP at Constant Market Prices:

  • GDP rose incredible 6.95% y/y in 3Q 2015, having previously posted growth of 6.84% y/y in 2Q 2015, both up on 3.75% growth in 3Q 2014. Year on year, 3Q 2015 rose EUR3.384 billion, which was up on 2Q 2015 growth of 3.234 billion, with both quarters posting massive uplift compared to 3Q 2014 growth of EUR1.757 billion.
  • In 3 quarters of 2015, GDP rose by EUR9.943 billion which corresponds to annual growth of 7.04% and amounts to 148% uplift compared to the rise in GNP.


GNP at Constant Market Prices:

  • -GNP rose 3.18% y/y in 3Q 2015, less than half the rate of increase in GDP. This comes on foot of the 5.5% y/y growth in 2Q 2015 and lower than 3Q 2014 growth of 3.68%. 
  • Over the 9 months through September 2015, Irish GNP grew cumulative EUR6.694 billion (+5.58%) compared to the same period of 2014. This is appreciable growth, but it is far short of the GDP expansion over the same period. 


Per chart above, both GDP and GNP continue on the upward trend, albeit at different rates of growth. This divergence is now translating into widening (once again) GDP/GNP gap. In 2Q 2015, the GDP/GNP gap stood at 18.9%. In 3Q 2015 the gap widened to 21.65% - the largest since 1Q 2012 and well above the average of 17.8% for the period from 1Q 2013 through 3Q 2015. This gap used to reflect most of the over-statement of actual economic activity due to the MNCs trading in the Irish economy, but it no longer does, as new accounting standards now push up (superficially) or investment (via R&D reclassification in recent years, and through the upcoming ‘Knowledge Development Box’) and as MNCs continue to alter their pattern of profit flows through Ireland.

The latter aspect is reflected in rising volatility of Net Factor Income Flows which rose to 17.8% as a share of GDP in 3Q 2015, the highest level since 1Q 2012.


Incidentally, Net Factor Income for Rest of the World stood at a whooping EUR9.264 billion in 3Q 2015 - the highest level on record. Over nine months through September, MNCs-driven outflows of payments from Ireland exceeded inflows of payments into Ireland by a massive EUR24.67 billion which is 15.2 percent higher than for the same period of 2014.

Here is a comparative to ponder: in the first three quarters of 2015, GNP rose EUR6.69 billion on the same period of 2014, while net outflows of factor payments out of Ireland rose EUR3.25 billion, almost 1/3 of the increase in GDP and 1/5 of the increase in GNP.

Still, it is worth noting that for all of the above caveats, based on 4 quarters rolling cumulative measure, Irish GDP is now 6.97% above pre-crisis peak and is 6.78% ahead of where it was a year ago. For GNP, current 4 quarters cumulative reading is 8% ahead of pre-crisis peak and 6.45 above last year’s reading.


Stay tuned for quarterly growth rates analysis coming up next.

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

4/8/15: Of Corporate Stash and Irish Cash


There are two things to notice in this Bloomberg chart:

First the obvious one: Our Not-a-Tax-Haven Ireland is in the company of Bermuda, Lux and Switzerland, alongside the equally Not-a-Tax-Haven Netherlands (that Double-Dutch Sandwich is an all-transparent arrangement to attract companies to Dutch quality workforce, only second to the best-in-class workforce of Ireland). That is trivial stuff, though.

Second (less trivial) is the quantum of profits domiciled in the likes of Ireland. It has been large and rising. And thus, if begs a question: What happens to Irish 'economic growth' when these profits are repatriated either for investment purposes abroad (e.g. in Asia Pacific or elsewhere) or on foot of any future tax amnesty in the US or both?

Answers to that question should be mailed to every Irish Minister so keen on confusing MNCs profits and Irish economic miracles.

Friday, July 31, 2015

31/7/15: Irish 1Q 2015 Growth: Quarterly Growth in GDP and GNP


Having looked at sectoral growth contributions for 1Q 2015 and trends in annual (y/y) growth rates in GDP and GNP, let's take a look at quarterly (q/q) growth rates.

On a quarterly basis:

  • GDP at constant prices was up 1.365% q/q in 1Q 2015, which is up on 1.235% growth recorded in 4Q 2014 and on 1.206% growth in 1Q 2014. So we have acceleration in quarterly growth in GDP. We now have five consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth with rates of growth all statistically above zero. Good news.
  • GNP, however, posted a decline in q/q growth of -0.762% in 1Q 2015, which contrasts with 3.43% growth q/q in 4Q 2014 and with 1.554% growth q/q in 1Q 2014. This is the first negative growth quarter for GNP after four consecutive quarters of expansion.


Chart above also shows how dramatically higher volatility in GNP growth figures has been in recent years. Over the entire history of the current series (from 1Q 1997), quarterly GDP growth volatility (measured by standard deviation) stood at 2.0076. This fell to 1.42225 over the period from 1Q 2011. So volatility in GDP growth declined over the recent period compered to historical. The opposite happened with GNP, which had historical volatility of 2.24441 and volatility since 1Q 2011 of 2.6658. So volatility increased for GNP.

Let's look at business cycle data. First, chart below shows contractions and expansions based on GDP q/q growth figures alone:


Next, using both GDP and GNP figures:


The two charts above reinforce the argument that we do indeed have a pretty robust recovery, with 4-5 out of the last 5 quarters on solid expansion trend based on both GDP and GNP, five on basis of GDP alone.

So on the net, the results on a quarterly basis are weaker than on the annual basis, with GNP posting an outright contraction. One consolation is that GNP decline of 0.762% q/q in 1Q 2015 is much shallower than Q4 and Q2 2013, as well as all other cases of declines from Q3 2008 on.

However, negative growth in GNP is worth looking closer at, which I shall do in subsequent posts, so stay tuned.

31/7/15: Irish 1Q 2015 Growth: Annual Growth in GDP and GNP


As promised in yesterday's post, I am continuing to cover the latest data on Irish National Accounts for 1Q 2015. In the first post, I looked at GDP at Factor Cost - the sectoral activity feeding into GDP headline numbers.

This time around, let's take a look at real GDP and GNP trends.

First - y/y growth  rates:

  • Sectoral activity (measured by the GDP at Factor Cost) added some EUR2.47 billion to the real GDP increase in 1Q 2015 compared to 1Q 2014. This resulted in total real GDP growth of 6.51% y/y in 1Q 2015, up marginally on 4Q 2014 annual rate of growth of 5.98% and significantly higher than 1Q 2014 annual rate of growth of 4.13%.  This is strong performance and the good news. 
  • From the top headline number, we now have third consecutive quarter (from 3Q 2014) when 4 quarters cumulative output is in excess of pre-crisis peak levels in real (inflation-adjusted) terms. Which is very good news too. Ironically, on GNP side, we now have four consecutive quarters of cumulated 4Q output in excess of pre-crisis peak. Overall, 1Q 2014 marks the seventh consecutive quarter of positive y/y GDP growth.
  • Meanwhile, GNP posted 7.27% growth y/y in 1Q 2015, which was, imagine that, slower than 9.00% expansion recorded in 4Q 2014, but faster than 4.30% growth in 1Q 2014. 
  • Normally, we would be exceptionally happy with this rate of GNP growth, but since 2013, GNP figures carry substantial 'pollution' from accelerated tax optimisation schemes known collectively as contract manufacturing. Still, faster growth in GNP than GDP suggests that a lot of growth this quarter is coming from organic, real growth on the ground, although we cannot tell how much exactly.
  • Overall, we now have the seventh consecutive quarter of y/y growth in GNP, which is good.



As long-term trends go, the chart below illustrates ongoing recovery in GDP and GNP


As far as the obvious point goes: there is a strong trend recovery in both series, which (sadly, I have to repeat this) is good news. One interesting thing to note is that trend for GNP recovery leads trend for GDP recovery. The reason for this is less pleasant than we like to think: instead of increasing contribution to activity from domestic economy, much of this lead is driven by changes in MNCs tax optimisation schemes, under which:

  1. External activity is being booked into Ireland under 'contract manufacturing' schemes; and
  2. Many profit-generative activities by MNCs are turning into cost-centre activities (booking higher costs into Ireland).

The latter point can be seen by looking at the relationship between GDP and net factor payments abroad, illustrated below in the form of declining share of GDP accounted for by profits & royalties repatriation abroad. This trend is likely to continue and accelerate as MNCs get to more aggressively use our latest tax 'innovation' - the knowledge development box.


Thus, the chart above gives us some, very indirect, indication of how dodgy are our GNP statistics becoming. Though, more on that in subsequent posts.

In addition to the net income outflows, the chart above shows the trend of declining GDP/GNP gap. Current 1Q 2015 GDP/GNP gap is at 18.07%, against the average over 2013-present of 17.28% and a 3mo average of 15.58%, which suggests two driving factors: higher GDP activity and increased outflow of booked profits, alongside exchange rates effects. The latter factor is important as it further compounds multiple distortions in the data from the MNCs.

In summary, evidence continues to show strong growth performance both in GDP and GNP in real terms, with some lingering questions as to the nature of this growth in relation to the MNCs activities here.

Stay tuned for quarterly growth analysis.

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

25/3/15: IMF on Ireland: Risk Assessment and Growth Outlook 2015-2016


In the previous post covering IMF latest research on Ireland, I looked at the IMF point of view relating to the distortions to our National Accounts and growth figures induced by the tax-optimising MNCs.

Here, let's take a look at the key Article IV conclusions.

All of the IMF assessment, disappointingly, still references Q1-Q3 2014 figures, even though more current data is now available. Overall, the IMF is happy with the onset of the recovery in Ireland and is full of praise on the positives.

It's assessment of the property markets is that "property markets are bouncing back rapidly from their lows but valuations do not yet appear stretched." This is pretty much in line with the latest data: see http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/03/25315-irish-residential-property-prices.html

The fund notes that in a boom year of 2014 for Irish commercial property transactions "the volume of turnover in Irish commercial real estate in
2014 was higher than in the mid 2000s, with 37.5 percent from offshore investors." This roughly shows a share of the sales by Nama. Chart below illustrates the trend (also highlighted in my normal Irish Economy deck):



However what the cadet above fails to recognise is that even local purchases also involve, predominantly, Nama sales and are often based on REITs and other investment vehicles purchases co-funded from abroad. My estimate is that less than a third of the total volume of transactions in 2014 was down to organic domestic investment activity and, possibly, as little as 1/10th of this was likely to feed into the pipeline of value-added activities (new build, refurbishment, upgrading) in 2015. The vast majority of the purchases transactions excluding MNCs and public sector are down to "hold-and-flip" strategies consistent with vulture funds.

Decomposing the investment picture, the IMF states that "Investment is reviving but remains low by historical standards, with residential construction recovery modest to date. Investment (excluding aircraft orders and intangibles) in the year to Q3 2014 was up almost 40 percent from two years earlier, led by a rise in machinery and equipment spending."

Unfortunately, we have no idea how much of this is down to MNCs investments and how much down to domestic economy growth. Furthermore, we have no idea how much of the domestic growth is in non-agricultural sectors (remember, milk quotas abolition is triggering significant investment boom in agri-food sector, which is fine and handy).

"But the ratio of investment to GDP, at 16 percent, is still well below its 22 percent pre-boom average, primarily reflecting low construction. While house completions rose by 33 percent y/y in 2014, they remain just under one-half of estimated household formation needs. Rising house prices are making new construction more profitable, yet high costs appear to be slowing the supply response together with developers’ depleted equity and their slow transition to
using external equity financing."

All of this is not new to the readers of my blog.



The key to IMF Article IV papers, however, is not the praise for the past, but the assessment of the risks for the future. And here they are in the context of Ireland - unwelcome by the Ministers, but noted by the Fund.

While GDP growth prospects remain positive for Ireland (chart below), "growth is projected to moderate to 3½ percent in 2015 and to gradually ease to a 2½ percent pace", as "export growth is projected to revert to about 4 percent from 2015". Now, here the IMF may be too conservative - remember our 'knowledge development box' unveiled under a heavy veil of obscurity in Budget 2015? We are likely to see continued strong MNCs-led growth in 2015 on foot of that, except this time around via services side of the economy. After all, as IMF notes: "Competitiveness is strong in the services export sector, albeit driven by industries with relatively low domestic value added." Read: the Silicon Dock.




Here are the projections by the IMF across various parts of the National Accounts:

So now onto the risks: "Risks to Ireland’s growth prospects are broadly balanced within a wide range, with key sources being:

  • "Financial market volatility could be triggered by a range of factors, yet Ireland’s vulnerability appears to be contained. Financial conditions are currently exceptionally favorable for both the sovereign and banks. A reassessment of sovereign risk in Europe or geopolitical developments could result in renewed volatility and spread widening. But market developments currently suggest contagion to Ireland would be contained by [ECB policies interventions]. Yet continued easy international financial conditions could lead to vulnerabilities in the medium term. For example, if the international search for yield drove up Irish commercial property prices, risks of an eventual slump in prices and construction would increase, weakening economic activity and potentially impacting domestic banks." In other words, unwinding the excesses of QE policies, globally, is likely to contain risks for the open economy, like Ireland.
  • "Euro area stagnation would impede exports. Export projections are below the average growth in the past five years of 4¾ percent, implying some upside especially given recent euro depreciation. Yet Ireland is vulnerable to stagnation of the euro area, which accounts for 40 percent of exports. Over time, international action on corporate taxation could reduce Ireland’s attractiveness for some export-oriented FDI, but the authorities see limited risks in practice given other competitive advantages and as the corporate tax rate is not affected."
  • "Domestic demand could sustain its recent momentum, yet concerns remain around possible weak lending in the medium term. Consumption growth may exceed the pace projected in coming years given improving property and labor market conditions. However, domestic demand recovery could in time be hindered by a weak lending revival if Basel III capital requirements became binding owing to insufficient bank profits, or if slow NPL resolution were to limit the redeployment of capital to profitable new loans." Do note that in the table listing IMF forecasts above, credit to the private sector is unlikely to return to growth until 2016 and even then, credit growth contribution will remain sluggish into 2017.


And the full risk assessment matrix:




Oh, and then there is debt. Glorious debt.

I blogged on IMF's view of the household debt earlier here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ie/2015/03/25315-imf-on-irish-household-debt-crisis.html and next will blog on Government debt risks, so stay tuned.

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

24/3/15: There's no number left untouched: Irish GDP, GNP and economy


According to Bloomberg, US companies are stashing some USD2.1 trillion of overseas cash reserves away from the IRS: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-04/u-s-companies-are-stashing-2-1-trillion-overseas-to-avoid-taxes?hootPostID=ffda3e167ae0ebabc3da4188e9bd22de

Ireland is named once in the report in a rather obscure case. Despite the fact we have been named on numerous other occasions in much larger cases. But beyond this, let's give a quick wonder.

1) Last year, exports of goods in Ireland leaped EUR89,074 million based on trade accounts with Q1-Q3 accounts showing exports of EUR66,148 million compared to the same period of 2013 at EUR65,381 million - a rise of 1.01% or EUR767 million. Full year rise was EUR2,075 million. So far so good. Now, national accounts also report exports of goods. These show: exports of goods in Q1-Q3 2013 at EUR69,731 million and exports of goods in Q1-Q3 2014 at EUR78,835 million, making y/y increase of EUR9,104 million. Full year 2014 - EUR108.989 billion a rise of EUR15.98 billion y/y. The discrepancy, for only 3 quarters, is EUR8,337 million or a massive 6.1% of GDP over the same period. For the full year it is EUR19.92 billion or 11% of annual GDP. Much of this difference of EUR19.92 billion was down to 'contract manufacturing' - yet another novel way for the MNCs to stash cash for the bash… IMF estimated the share of contract manufacturing to be at around 2/3rds of the annual rise in Q1-Q3 figures. Which suggests that around EUR7.4 billion (once we take account of imports of goods) of Irish GDP rise in 2014 was down to... err... just one tax optimisation scheme. That is EUR7.4 billion of increase out of EUR8.275 billion total economic expansion in the MiracleGrow state of ours.

2) Last month, Services activity index for Ireland posted a massive spike: overall services activity rose 12.59% y/y, the dynamic similar to what happened in Q2-Q3 last year with goods exports (Q1 2014 y/y +8.2%, Q2 2014 y/y +12.9% and Q3 2014 y/y +17.9%). Even more telling is the composition of Services growth by sectors: wholesales & retail trade sector up 8.83% (a third lower than the overall growth rate), transportation and storage - ditto at 8.4%, admin & supportive services +2.91%. Accommodation and food services posted rapid rise of 14.03% and professional, scientific & technical activities rose 13.97%. Meanwhile, tax optimisation-driven information & communication services activity was up 21.15%. What could have happened to generate such an expansion? Anybody's guess. Mine is 3 words: "knowledge development box" - a non-transparent black-box solution for tax optimisation announced as a replacement for the notorious "double-Irish" scheme. So let's suppose that half of the services sectors growth is down to MNCs and will have an effect on our 'exports'. In Q3 2014 these expanded by 13.4% y/y and in Q2 by 10.8% - adding EUR5,560 million to exports. January data on services activity suggests, under the above assumption, roughly the same trend continuing so far, which by year end can lead to a further MNCs-induced distortion of some EUR11 billion to our accounts on foot of Services sectors exports.

Take (1) and (2) together, you have roughly EUR21-22 billion of annual activity in the export areas of services and goods sectors that is likely (in 2015) to be down to MNCs washing profits through Ireland through just two schemes.

Then there are our factor payments abroad - what MNCs ship out of Ireland, in basic terms. As our total exports of goods and services been rising, the MNCs are taking less and less profit out of Ireland. Chart below sums these up. While profitability of MNCs is rising - a worldwide trend - Ireland-based MNCs remittances of profits are falling as percentage of exports. 2008-2012 average for the ratio of net remittances to exports is 18%, which suggests that even absent any uplift in profit margins, some EUR27.5 billion worth of profits should have been repatriated in Q1-Q3 2014 instead of EUR22.16 billion that was repatriated - a difference of EUR5.36 billion over 3 quarters or annualised rate of over EUR7.1 billion. Factoring in seasonality, the annualised rate jumps to closer to EUR8 billion.

On an annualised basis, for full year 2014, exports of goods and services from Ireland rose y EUR23.28 billion year-on-year, while net exports rose EUR3.784 billion. Meanwhile, profits repatriations (net) rose only EUR719 million. Aptly, for each euro of exports in 2013, Ireland's national accounts registered 74.2 cents in net factor payments abroad. In 2014 this figure hit historical low of 69.1 cent.

My guess is, MNCs have washed via Ireland close to EUR30 billion worth of profits or equivalent of 17.1% of 2013 full year GDP and close to 16.5% of 2014 GDP. Guess what was the GDP-GNP gap in 2013? 18.5 percent. And in 2014? 15.4%. Pretty darn close to my estimates.

Let's check this figure against aggregate differences in 2008-2014 GDP and GNP. The cumulated gap between the two measures, in nominal terms, stands at EUR201.3 billion, closer to EUR204 billion once we factor in seasonality in Q4 numbers to the estimate based on Q1-Q3 data. The above estimate of EUR29.97 billion in 'retained' profits implies, over 7 years a cumulated figure of EUR209.8 billion, or a variance of EUR827-1,200 million. Not much of a margin of error. I'll leave it to paid boffins of irish economics to complete estimates beyond Q3 2014, but you get the picture.

And now back to points (1) and (2) above: how much of the Irish growth in manufacturing and services - growth captured by one of the two exports accounts and by the likes of PMI metrics and sectoral activities indices is real and how much of it is an accounting trick? And what about other schemes run by the MNCs? And, finally and crucially, do note that contract manufacturing and knowledge development box types of tax optimisation schemes contribute to both GDP and GNP growth, thus completing the demolition job on Irish National Accounts. There is not a number left in this economy that is worth reading.


Update: we also have this handy graphic from the BusinessInsider (http://uk.businessinsider.com/us-corporate-cash-stashed-overseas-2015-3?r=US) charting the evolution of U.S. MNCs stash of cash offshore:


Ah, those U.S. MNCs err... FDI... mattresses...

Sunday, November 23, 2014

23/11/2014: Half of Irish Growth Miracle is Accounting Trickery?


Those who read this blog, follow me on twitter or heard me speak recently at the conferences covering Irish economy would know that I have consistently estimated about 1/2 of Irish H1 2014 growth figures to be attributable to something strange that is happening between the official trade statistics we get for goods exports and the national accounts estimate of same exports. The gap is massive and is running now at roughly 7 times the historical average gap.


You can also see some of the same discussion here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ru/2014/10/18102014-irish-economy-state-of-recovery.html

And in print here: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.ru/2014/11/2112014-irelands-recovery-economic.html

Now we have another economist pointing the same, except this time via the august Irish Times platform that is, of course, off-limits for myself.

Still, good to see someone else, especially from the Officially Approved Economists' list, is putting forward same arguments via the Official Paper of Record... Here is their link: http://www.irishtimes.com/business/sectors/transport-and-tourism/member-of-fiscal-policy-group-says-growth-rates-artificially-high-1.2011091#.VHAkeF1Tmq%E2%80%A6

Thursday, June 6, 2013

6/6/2013: Domestic Economy v MNCs: Sunday Times 26/5/2013


This is an unedited version of my Sunday Times column from May 26, 2013



Over recent months, one side of the Irish economy – the side of aggressive tax optimization and avoidance by the Ireland-based multinational corporations – has provided a steady news-flow across the global and even domestic media. While important in its own right, the debate as to whether Ireland is a corporate tax haven de facto or de jure is missing a major point. That point is the complete and total disconnection between Ireland’s two economies: economy we all inhabit in our daily lives and economy that exists on paper, servers and in the IT clouds. The latter has a mostly intangible connection to our everyday reality, but is a key driver of Ireland’s macroeconomic performance and the Government PR machine.

Take a look at two simple sets of facts.

According to our national accounts, Ireland’s economy, measured in terms of GDP per capita, has been growing for two consecutive years expressed in both nominal terms and inflation-adjusted terms. Real GDP per capita in Ireland grew over 2010-2012 period by a cumulative 2.38% according to the IMF. Accounting for differences across the countries in price levels and exchange rates (using what economists refer to as purchasing power parity adjustment), Ireland’s GDP per capita has risen 5.7% over the two years through the end of 2012. Over the same period of time, Ireland’s GNP per capita, controlling for exchange rates and prices differentials, has grown by 3.3%.

Sounds like the party is rolling back into town? Not so fast. The aggregate figures above provide only a partial view of what is happening at the households’ level in the Irish economy. Stripping out most of the transfer pricing activity by the multinationals, domestic economy in Ireland is down, not up, by 5.2% between 2010 and 2012, once we adjust for inflation and it is down 2.7% when we take nominal values. With net emigration claiming around six percent of our population, per capita private domestic economic activity has fallen 4.2% over the last two years.

All in, Irish domestic economy is the second worst performer in the group of all peripheral euro area states, plus Iceland. Sixth year into the crisis, we are now in worse shape than Argentina was at the same junction of its 1998-2004 crisis.


What the above numbers indicate is that the Irish domestic economy, taken at the household level, has been experiencing two simultaneous pressures.

While aggregate inflation across the economy has been relatively benign, stripping out the effects of the interest rates reduction on the cost of housing, Irish households are facing significant price pressures in a number of sectors, reducing their real household incomes just at the time when the Government is increasing direct and indirect tax burdens. At the same time, rampant unemployment and underemployment have been responsible for lifting precautionary savings amongst the households with any surplus disposable income. By broader unemployment metrics that include unemployed, officially underemployed, and state-training programmes participants, Irish unemployment is currently running at 28% of the potential labour force. Adding in those who emigrated from Ireland since 2008 pushes the above broad measure of unemployment to close to 33%.

Lastly, the households are facing tremendous pressures to deleverage out of debt, pressures exacerbated by the Government-supported efforts of the banks to increase rates of recovery on stressed mortgages.

In this environment, real disposable incomes of households net of tax and housing costs are continuing to fall despite the increases recorded in GDP and GNP. The Irish Government, so keen on promoting our improved cost competitiveness when it comes to the foreign investors is presiding over the ever-escalating costs of living at home.

In 2012 consumer prices excluding mortgages interest costs stood the highest level in history and 1.2% ahead of pre-crisis peak of inflation recorded in 2008. Much of this is accounted for by the heavily taxed and regulated energy prices.

Sectoral data reveals the story of rampant annual inflation in state-controlled parts of the economy. Of ten broader categories of goods and services, ex-housing, reported by CSO, all but one private sectors posted virtually no inflation over 2012 compared to the average levels of prices in 2006-2008 period. Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices declined 1.4%, clothing and footware prices are now a quarter lower, costs of furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance are down 13%, and recreation and culture services charges are down more than 2.7%. Restaurants and hotels costs are statistically-speaking flat with price increases of just 0.4% on 2006-2008 average. The only private sector that did post statistically significant levels of inflation was communications where prices rose 3.5% by the end of 2012 compared to pre-crisis average. But even here postal services charges lead overall inflationary pressures.

In contrast, every state-controlled and heavily taxed sub-sector is posting rampant inflation. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco prices are up 12.3%, health up 13.4%, transport up 11.4%, and education costs are up 30.4%. Energy costs are up 32.5% and utilities and local charges are up 14.9%. While energy costs rose virtually in line with increases in global energy price indices, the state still reaped a windfall gain from this inflation via higher tax revenues, and higher returns to state-owned dominant energy market companies: ESB, Bord Gais and Bord na Mona.

The state extraction of funds through controlled charges and taxation linked to these charges is rampant. Over 2009-2012 period, indirect taxes, state revenues from sales of services and investment income – all linked to the cost base in the underlying economy rose from EUR 24.8 billion in 2009 (44.3% of total state revenues) to EUR 25.2 billion in 2012 (44.5% of total state revenues). This was despite significant declines in imports and consumption of goods in the domestic economy and declines in government own consumption of goods from EUR 10.4 billion in 2009 to EUR 8.56 billion in 2012. For those who think this extraction is nearly over now, let me remind you that IMF forecast increases in Government revenues for Ireland over 2014-2018 are set to exceed revenues increases passed in all budgets since 2008.


The price and tax hikes on Irish households leave them exposed to the risk of future increases in mortgages costs. Government controlled prices are sticky to the downside, which means that the once prices are raised, the state regulators and policymakers are unwilling to adjust prices downward in the future, no matter how bad households budgets can get. The reason for this is that semi-state companies reliant on regulated charges have significant market and political powers, especially as they act as prime vehicles for big bang ‘jobs creation’ and ‘investment’ announcements that fuel Irish political fortunes. At the same time, the state uses revenues obtained directly via dividends payouts and indirectly via taxes on goods and services supplied by the semi-state companies as substitutes for direct taxation. Absent deflation in state-controlled sectors, there is very little room left in the private sectors to compensate households for any potential future hikes in mortgages by reducing costs of goods and services elsewhere.

And mortgages costs are bound to rise over time. In 2008, new mortgages interest rates averaged around 5.2% against the ECB repo rate average of 3.85%, implying a lending margin of around 135 basis points. Since January 2013, ECB rates have averaged 0.7% while Irish mortgages rates averaged around 3.4%, implying a margin of 270 basis points. At this stage, we can expect ECB rates to revert to their historical average of around 3.1% in the medium-term future. At the same time, according to the Troika, Government and Central Bank’s plans, Irish banks will have to increase their lending margins. Put simply, current average new mortgages rates of 3.4% can pretty quickly double. Ditto for existent mortgages rates.

Based on CSO data, end of 2012 mortgages interest costs stood at the levels some 14.5% below those in 2007-2009 period and 29.6% below pre-crisis peak levels.  Reversion of the mortgages interest rates to historical averages and adjusting for increased lending margins over ECB rate would mean that mortgages interest costs can rise to well above their 2008 levels, with inflation in mortgages interest payments hitting 50%-plus over the next few years.


The dual structure of the Irish economy, splitting the country into an MNCs-dominated competitiveness haven and domestic overpriced and overtaxed nightmare, is going to hit Ireland hard in years to come. The only solution to the incoming crisis of rampant state-fuelled inflation in the cost of living compounding the households insolvency already present on the foot of the debt crisis is to reform our domestic economy. However, the necessary reforms must be concentrated in the areas dominated by the state-owned enterprises and quangos. These reforms will also threaten the state revenue extraction racket that is milking Irish consumers for every last penny they got. With this in mind, it is hardly surprising that to-date, six years into the crisis, Irish governments have done nothing to transform state-sponsored unproductive sectors of the domestic economy into consumers-serving competitively priced ones.

Chart with Argentina: GDP per capita adjusted for PPP differences (prices and exchange rates)




Box-out: 

Remember Ireland’s ‘exports-led recovery’ fairytale? The premise that an economy can grow out of its banking, debt and growth crises by expanding its exports has been firmly debunked by years of rapid growth in exports of goods and services, widening current account surpluses and lack of real growth in the underlying economy. Recent data, however, shows that the thesis of ‘exports-led recovery’ for the euro area is as dodgy as it is for Ireland. In 2010-2012, gross exports out of the euro area expanded by a massive 21.4%. Over the same period GDP grew by only 2.8%. Stripping out positive contributions from the private economy side (Government and household consumption, plus domestic investment), net exports growth effectively had no impact on shallow GDP expansion recorded in 2010 and 2011. The latest euro area economy forecasts for 2013 across 21 major research and financial services firms and five international economic and monetary policy organizations show a 100% consensus that while exports out of the euro area will continue to post positive growth this year, the euro area recession will continue on foot of contracting private domestic consumption and investment. Median consensus forecast is now for the euro area GDP to fall 0.4% in 2013 on foot of 2.1% drop in investment, 0.8% contraction in private consumption and a relatively benign 0.3% decline in Government consumption. The same picture – of near zero effect of exports on expected growth – is replayed in 2014 forecasts, with expectations for investment followed by private consumption expansion being the core drivers for the euro area return to positive GDP growth of ca 1.0%. Sadly, no one in Europe’s corridors of power seem to have any idea on how to move from fairytale policies pronouncements to real pro-growth ideas.

Friday, March 22, 2013

22/3/2013: National Accounts 2012: Ireland - Part 3


The first post of the series covering 2012 National Accounts looked at the headline numbers for real GDP growth. 

The second post covered sectoral weights in GNP and our GDP/GNP gap.

Overall, there are two main themes in rebalancing of the economy that showed up in data so far: 
1) Increasing share of MNCs activity in GDP (and temporarily GNP), which means that the official figures for the National Accounts now even more overestimate the real economic activity in the country; and
2) Long-term falling out of Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing and Construction sectors from the economy, with Public Administration & Defence clearly showing signs of contraction, albeit at the rate that is, so far, trailing contraction in overall economy over the period 2003-2012.

In this post, let's take a look at the opportunity cost of the crisis.

Recall that relative to peak, Irish GDP is down 5.97% as of the end of 2012 and GNP is down 8.08% despite 'two years of consecutive growth' the Government is so keen on emphasising. 

Also recall that 1980-2011 average growth rates in constant prices terms were 3.58% per annum, whilst IMF forecasts consistent structural or potential growth rate is currently around 2%. Using 2% figure we can, therefore, estimate the opportunity cost of the current crisis as losses to GDP and GNP arising from the growth foregone during the crisis. Chart below illustrates:



The grand total in opportunity cost due to the crisis (note, this is not an exercise in 'blaming the Government' or providing any estimate of real or actual losses, but rather an estimate of the opportunity cost of the crisis) is:
-- EUR104.5bn of cumulated foregone GDP for 2008-2012 or per-capita EUR22,823;
-- EUR58.8bn of cumulated foregone GNP for 2008-2012 or EUR12,828 per capita

With taxes net of subsidies at 9.647% of the GDP in 2012, the above implies roughly EUR10.1bn in foregone net tax receipts or ca EUR2bn in annual receipts. Using 2008-2012 average weight of net taxes in GDP implies EUR2.4bn in foregone annual net tax receipts.

What does this mean? Aside from the massive opportunity cost of the crisis, we have a rather revealing figure on foregone tax receipts. The figure clearly suggests that even were economic activity running at the 2% growth rate since 2007 without the crisis, re-alignment of economic activity away from domestic sectors toward MNCs-dominated activities and toward MNCs-dominated services activities in particular would still result in unsustainable deficits and would still required some sort of a fiscal adjustment, thanks to our taxation system that is extremely unbalanced when it comes to supporting MNCs-focused activities.